Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Yingluck Shinawatra wins landmark election to become Thailand's first female prime minister

The most popular party deserves to win!



Yingluck Shinawatra's Puea Thai won an estimated 264 seats in the 500-seat parliament. A simple majority is considered a clear mandate. With most voters coming from the populous and poorer regions and provinces, charisma and handouts seem to appeal to the people more than intellect and policy issues. Hence it was not surprising that historically, elections were won by parties that campaigned on populist policies that endeared to the poor masses and working class.


Nevertheless, Yingluck needs to muster the support of other sympathetic parties to push for certain crucial and controversial policies. The days ahead will see horsetrading to piece together a multi-party coalition government as has happened in the past Thai parliaments and cabinets.


Yingluck will be first female prime minister in patrichial Thailand. Hopefully, Thailand will have better luck this time.


Deep divisions surfaced on the eve of Thaksin's ouster five years ago and persisted to date. Incessant fareup of protests and government crackdown which culminated in violence have put the economy on a standstill. Foreign investors and tourists have stayed away, exacerbating the already slow recovery from GFC and domestic woes.


Outgoing PM Abhisit has been given all the opportunities and support from the military, monarchy and key power brokers. Instead of leading the country out of the economic doldrums, Abhisit has been diverting attention to foreign policy issues, such as whipping up nationalist sentiments by reigniting disputes with neighbouring countries. Hence, the saying that Democrat Party has always performed better in the opposition criticising government policies than being in government itself, holds true.

Yingluck, a businesswoman and political novice, has to placate critics that she would pave the way for the return of her controversial brother Thaksin, grant an amnesty and recover frozen assets.


Alas, Yingluck does not have the stature as her brother Thaksin. Even if she tries to be more assertive, the various power centres will frown upon attempts to encroach into their territory of wealth and influence, the main cause of Thaksin's downfall.


Quote : Supporters say Thaksin revolutionized Thai politics with pro-business reforms and populist policies aimed at eradicating poverty. Critics accuse him of authoritarianism, crony capitalism and undermining Thailand's revered monarchy.



Yingluck would be careful not to push her luck too far or suffer the same fate as her brother. It may be prudent for her to bide for time and build up her credentials. As the Asian saying goes, vengeance calls for patience.

Thai political scene is likely to continue with its hallmark volatility as different vested interests jockey for power at every opportunity. A democratic system with disparate players and parties may no longer enjoy the effectual bedrock of constitutional monarchy when the frail King Bhumipol dies.